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Early Release Chapter 1

THE POLITICS OF FIRE - THE SAN DIEGO CATASTROPHE

 ©CNCFirebook2008

Santa Ana winds start blowing at 70+ mph after a prolonged drought with single-digit humidity on a hot day. An arsonist for whatever reason lights a fire, or a motorbike misfires, or children are playing with matches at the base of the Merriam Mountains in North San Diego County. A fire starts and burns rapidly and intensely up the mountain associated with dense smoke, heat, embers, noise and flames creating a terrifying picture. There are 10,000 to 13,000 people in their homes up on Merriam Mountain, in the parks, in the woods or on the roads.

Of course, there would be no time for evacuation of so many people. The roads through the natural habitat would not be passable. The major egress roads would become immediately clogged in poor visibility and, as in late evacuation, accidents would occur. There would be panic in trying to find and protect loved ones. Windows would not all be closed and some homes would catch fire from embers. The sparse amount of fire personnel would be helpless in fighting an urban fire in the midst of a massive wildland fire intermingled with thousands of residents needing help. Everyone would be at the mercy of the fire. There would not be enough time (less than 15 minutes) for any effective coordination by the government, law enforcement, fire personnel or the population to deal with the event. The roads of all the surrounding areas would become immediately clogged and the potential evacuation of anyone in the Twin Oaks, Hidden Meadows and Deer Springs area would be compromised.

The only sorry conclusion that could be made in such a scenario is that the proposed Stonegate development should never have been built because of this specific potential danger and the resultant massive injury and loss of life that would occur.

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

 

The politics of fire can be defined as the intersection of economic interests of developers, the political system and all its faults, the potential for wildland fire, and the safety of the public. What makes the politics of fire in San Diego County so unique is that it crosses a line that now places the safety of the public below the interests of the developers. In order for that to occur, the political system has to fail in its number one priority, which is the regulation of the protection of the public. The County, State and Federal governments have as of the present time stood idly by watching the events unfold. The massive wildfires of 2003 in San Diego served as a wake-up call. The wildfires of 2007 once again confirmed how dangerous San Diego County wildfires could be and how ineffective the government has been in preventing widespread and costly destruction of property. The California wildfires of 2007 showed dramatic evidence of how the winds and the climate controlled the fate of what would happen in a wildfire and not the firefighters. So far, human life has been largely preserved because everyone has been able to evacuate in the face of wildfire. That is about to change. This is highlighted by the proposed building of one particular development in San Diego North County called Stonegate/Merriam Mountains (which we will call Stonegate, the name of the original group of land speculators). This development has not been formally approved as yet but reading this book will convince any reader why it is on a track for approval despite overwhelming evidence that is unsafe and could easily result in the deaths of hundreds or thousands of people in addition to the destruction of millions if not billions of dollars of property. The proposed Stonegate development will serve as an example just how distorted and corrupted the government has become when common sense is ignored and special interests are permitted to run amok. The County has purposefully and willfully neglected the implications of wildland fire by allowing development to take place that is uninhibited by safety considerations. It is important to tell this story in order to influence and change the way development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI)[2] will take place in the future. Perhaps then the Governor of California will not impose extra taxes on the population for firefighting and fire relief while at the same time enabling future fire catastrophes to be more likely. Perhaps the Federal Government would not have to bail out those who suffered disasters caused by wildland fire if they did not ignore the danger that has now become out of control by allowing developers to build in San Diego’s most fire-hazardous areas in plain defiance of the principles and concepts of San Diego County's General Plan[3].

FIRE IN THE WUI IN SAN DIEGO

 

Most people do not consider fire to be a significant hazard to their safety and property so long as they take certain basic precautions and follow most safety rules. People rightly consider fire personnel to be very well trained to extinguish fires and deal effectively with a host of emergencies. Most fires are either localized to individual buildings or occur far away from populated areas and usually do not affect the average citizen. In the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where Stonegate will be located, a new problem will confront a homeowner. Suddenly, there is no guarantee that a fire that starts close by in the wildland (forest land or in a mountainous area covered by chaparral) will be easily contained.  In San Diego, climatologic conditions (a combination of high pressure and low pressure areas several hundred miles away) can cause gale force winds to blow from the east toward the west. These Santa Ana winds (that can be upwards of 70 mph) bring the hot dry desert wind to an area that has accumulated dry vegetation (fuel) in a drought situation. Added to this is the problem of extremely sloped land with canyons and mountains that enable fire to spread at very fast speeds (up to 100 mph). Firefighters are at the mercy of the weather conditions and cannot contain a wildfire unless the winds abate. All firefighting modalities (local, state and federal) become involved to try to contain the fire and help save structures and people when necessary. The point is clear that a fire in the WUI will threaten many areas and requires complete cooperation from many firefighting sources and still the fire may spread easily and unpredictably[4]. It may require mass and urgent evacuation in a similar fashion to what occurred in October of 2007 in San Diego. A fire occurring in what is called the Wildland-Urban interface is totally different from a typical urban building fire and requires a whole different approach to protect the lives and safety of those who live in the WUI. Evacuation must be assured in the planning of large dense developments in the midst of high fire-hazard severity zones.

THE COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS

The County of San Diego has five supervisors, each elected for a four-year term (with no limit on the number of terms served). Each Supervisor represents a different region within the county. The Board of Supervisors is the governmental body that rules on land use and decides whether a developer is granted the right to build a new housing project by voting to approve a "General Plan Amendment"[5]. The  Board has the final say unless its decision is challenged in court. Ideally, the Board should vote in accordance with and respect for existing law, exercising some discretion in special situations. They should be helped by the experts of the planning department (Department of Planning and Land Use –DPLU[6]) who will make a recommendation. They must consider the Environmental Impact Report[7] (EIR) and the public comments, and their general knowledge of their responsibilities under the law. They are not supposed to be influenced by campaign contributions made by developers or behind-the-scenes deals made with developers. They all should vote independently according to the merits of the project. It is well known in San Diego County that if a Supervisor wants a project in his area, the other four Supervisors will agree lest they not be able to gain approval of their own pet projects.

THE STONEGATE DEVELOPMENT

The Stonegate development is a proposal to build 2,700 homes on a pad size of approximately 400 acres in a rugged, mountainous and rural part of North San Diego County. The development will contain between 10,000 to 13,000 people[8] and will include approximately 2500 acres of which approximately 1200 acres will be left in its present state of natural biological habitat. This habitat is covered with and surrounded by thick chaparral (a highly combustible fuel) that has been building up for 100 years, thereby creating a gigantic fuel source for a wildland fire. The site is highly mountainous with 80% of the mountain having a slope of 25% or greater[10](navigeable only by a mountain goat). The site has been evaluated by the State of California and has been designated a Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone[11]. The site has actually been implicated in two scenarios for a potential devastating wildfire by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection[12]. The developer has unequivocally admitted in writing that in a fast-moving fire starting within the boundaries of the project or nearby adjacent areas, evacuation would be impossible because of the extreme rate of burning[13].

It is the intention of this book to show that this proposed development is inherently unsafe to build yet it is being pushed through the approval process because of corruption within the San Diego County government with complicity of the two developers (Stonegate and Newland Communities). The Federal and State governments have done nothing as yet to question the safety of the development although they have been alerted to the danger of Stonegate and it is within their purview of responsibility (the land on which the development is to be built is in a State Responsibility Area[14] {SRA}) to make sure this would be a safe development. The Governor of the State of California has already asked for an assessment to be paid by residents of the state specifically for fire fighting in the wildland but has done nothing to investigate a potential disaster by allowing building in the WUI to occur without the ability to evacuate (against provisions in state law since this would entail a significant risk to the residents of the project).

THE EARLY STONEGATE SAGA CHRONOLOGY

 

The Stonegate development proposal has been around since the year 2000 when a group of land speculators from Orange County decided to try to build a housing development on a steep rocky barren area called Merriam Mountains in a rural area of North San Diego County called Twin Oaks Valley. There were equestrian and agricultural activities located in this area with sparse residences. The principal zoning on Merriam Mountain with respect to San Diego's General Plan (GP) was 1 house for every 20 acres over the vast majority of this mountainous site.

The infrastructure with respect to roads was limited with a 2-lane road called Deer Springs Road that intersects with another 2-lane road called Twin Oaks Road. This serves most of the circulation needs of the area. The area is bounded on one side by I-15 to the East and the city of Vista and San Marcos to the west and south. Another rural area (Bonsall) borders this area on the north.

Stonegate consisted of investors who decided to speculate on land on Merriam Mountain (the present zoning combined with the rugged terrain made the land almost worthless), then change the zoning through a General Plan Amendment and thus gain the right to build an enormous housing development in the midst of rugged mountainous terrain. They could then choose to build the homes themselves or sell the rights to build homes to other developers. The Stonegate speculators started by buying options on the land and purchasing outright certain key areas that would serve as ingress or egress areas to the development.

On October 5, 2000 the Stonegate speculators applied for a Plan Amendment Authorization[15] (PAA) to develop Merriam Mountains and called their project Montechez. The proposal consisted of 434 units and was opposed by the Twin Oaks Sponsor Group[16] that prepared a lengthy and fully documented dissertation why the PAA should not be granted. This opposition was based on the facts that the General Plan conformity was not adequate and the environmental effects would violate the California Environmental Quality Act[17] (CEQA). In February of 2001 the PAA was withdrawn by Stonegate.

On July 28, 2003 Stonegate submitted a new PAA now proposing a six-fold increase of units to 2,391 homes. All the Sponsor Groups involved reiterated their strong and even more vehement opposition.

On Sept 11, 2003 (despite all three local sponsor groups' strong recommendations of rejection), the County's Department of Planning and Land Use granted Stonegate the right to present a Specific Plan as the first step toward a General Plan Amendment.

Specific Plan (SP): This is basically an outline of the proposed way the General Plan (GP) will be amended and a description of the development to be built. It serves as a building block on which the County, the Sponsor Groups, and other special groups (such as a Fire District), can add their input and allow the developer to modify and alter specific areas of the plan to comply with safety and the law. The Specific Plan contains a separate chapter on its required conformance to the General Plan.

In July 2004 Stonegate submitted its Specific Plan to the County asking to build 2,391 units and all three Sponsor Groups again unanimously voted to recommend rejection of the project.

On January 19, 2006 Stonegate submitted a revised Specific Plan now wanting to build 2,700 units despite unanimous rejection by the communities of the 2,391-unit proposal.

How can a project that was so opposed at 434 units return as a 2,391 unit project proposal and then despite vehement opposition return as a 2,700 unit proposal? A rare insight can be gained into the scheme of the developer and what happens behind closed doors by examining “the Stonegate Papers”[18]. What is even more notable is that the political processes at work are not deterred by the fact that the project has grown to such a huge size that the future safety of its residents are now seriously jeopardized because of the inability to evacuate in a wildland fire.

THE STONEGATE PAPERS

These papers were subpoenaed in a matter concerning redistricting of San Diego County. In the “net” of that subpoena, a set of letters between the Stonegate President (Mr. Gordon Youde) and several people working for Stonegate happened to be revealed. The excerpts are taken from those letters. The entire set of papers are referenced in the Appendix.

  •  On October 11, 2000 Stonegate attorney Wm. J. Schwartz wrote to the San Diego DPLU (planning unit):   “Under the existing slope density calculations prepared by Stonegate's civil engineer the 2,000 acre site will accommodate at least 434 single-family homes and an additional 100+ inclusionary units (permitted as a density bonus for affordable housing) on approximately 400-600 developable acres.”

Comment:  the slope of the land is related to the density of housing that can be safely built for a host of reasons (among them evacuation in case of fire). Stonegate said the max is 500-600 yet the project has now grown to 2,700.

  • On December 13, 2000, Stonegate President Youde writes to a land broker:   “If we receive a negative response from the Twin Oaks Sponsor Group, we may modify our submission and request a doubling of the density. If we have to fight why not fight for the entire loaf rather than half. This puts the sponsor group in the position of supporting a project of approximately 542 homes under the existing General Plan or running the risk of having 1,200 homes forced down their throats."

  • On February 28, 2001 Youde writes to property owners:     “P.S. Support Bill Horn! Without Supervisor Bill Horn and his strong advocacy for property rights we would have no chance at all. We are including a campaign contribution envelope for your use. We are supporting Mr. Horn to the maximum extent permitted under the law.”

  • On June 1, 2001 Youde writes to property owners:   “We continue to support Supervisor Horn and organized two tables of supporters at his May 22 re-election campaign fundraiser. The fundraiser was very successful and raised over $200,000. That gives Supervisor Horn a substantial war chest and dissuades challengers from attempting to unseat him."

  • On June 17, 2001 Youde writes to property owners:    “Supervisor Horn’s aides have asked us to provide political cover for the Supervisors if we are to bring this project forward and expect their support. We must have some supporters speak in favor of the project so as not give the media the impression that everyone is against this project and the Supervisors voted for it anyway.”

  • On June 22, 2001 Mr. Youde writes to property owners:   “Our political consultants will be working behind the scenes putting pressure on the Supervisors and staff to permit us to commence processing.”

  • On August 23, 2001 Mr. Youde writes to property owners:      “We have expressions of support from all the Supervisory offices.”

  • On February 20, 2002 Mr. Youde writes to property owners:   “Some of our Executive Committee members have had direct and personal contact with certain Supervisors who have said: “It will be a horrible process, but bring it forward, when you get to the Board, you will have the votes.”  

Upon reading the Stonegate papers, it becomes obvious that San Diego County government's approval process for new development has utterly ignored public safety. The process has been subverted by developers who direct the County Supervisors to approve unsafe and dangerous development plans. The fact that large sums of money are paid by developers to the Supervisors for their "re-election" (and whatever else) is even brazenly out in the open and reported in the papers. The Supervisors continue to approve developments in extreme high fire-severity areas where evacuation is not possible.  There is no concern about building safe development nor is there concern about the community’s objection (e.g., we will...“shove it down their throats”). The community's objections voiced along the way are considered to be mere noise and nuisance (e.g.,“it will be a horrible process”). As long as any changes required in the project are minor to the developer (and this will be controlled by the Supervisors), the project will proceed through the system and when it gets to the Supervisors, “you will have the votes." If the public does not become involved, the proposed Stonegate development will sail through.

THE COMMUNITY BECOMES INVOLVED

Several concerned community members attended a meeting in January, 2006 and were first introduced to Stonegate. A sign had appeared on Deer Springs Road (a road in Twin Oaks), traveled by us frequently, stating that a development was planned but we had taken no particular notice or care (not unlike many other residents.) Stonegate would be built approximately 3 miles from the adjoining communities of Champagne Village, Hidden Meadows, Deer Springs and Bonsall. At first, Stonegate seemed to pose no serious threat to our immediate surroundings but we did not know much about the development. We heard that the Stonegate developers would be presenting to the Bonsall Sponsor Group to inform that group what Stonegate had planned. We, at that point, believed that all development would have to go through hurdles to comply with existing laws and that our political leaders would have the safety of the public foremost in their mind followed by a due diligence to carry out the duties of their office.

At the Bonsall meeting, the history of the Stonegate proposal was reviewed. It was revealed that Stonegate had just increased the proposed number of housing units from 2,391 to 2,700, although the previous proposals for 434 and 2,391 units had been soundly rejected by all the sponsor groups. When Stonegate spokesman Joseph Perring appeared, accompanied by an entourage of people, it was clear what was occurring. In his presentation there was an arrogance and confidence that he was presenting a “fait accompli." He did not care that this was an outrageous proposal that had been rejected previously at a vastly lower number of proposed housing units. He did not address concerns about the density of the project and how it did not come close to conforming to the General Plan. The group with him continued to giggle and joke among themselves. It seemed as if they were mocking the Sponsor Group and its audience and were making fun of the group’s feeble attempts to object to their project. It was obvious that this developer was just going through the motions of presenting the project with little care as to the outrageous nature of the project.

We learned that the developer was confident that this project would be approved no matter what, that the Sponsor Groups had little influence, and that members of the community were not represented in their opposition to developers building poorly planned, over-dense and dangerous developments. We also learned that it was the developers' tactic to divide and weaken community opposition by targeting individual community members and catering to their "special interests."

We went to another sponsor group meeting at Hidden Meadows where we learned about the fire danger of Stonegate. One member talked about the speed and intensity of a fire in Merriam Mountains given the enormous amount of fuel surrounding the development and the steepness of the terrain. It wasn't long before we realized that the developer was building a firetrap of gargantuan proportions and no one effectively opposed the danger of this project. Fire was not even included as a serious concern the development may face in a list compiled by the developer.  We had our focus, were angered by what we saw and we began our research.



[1] The developer has found through telephone surveys that the name Stonegate had become associated with fire danger because of all the controversy surrounding this development. Although originally called Stonegate/Merriam Mountains, the developer thought it best to drop the Stonegate from the name. We thought it best to retain that name.

[2] The Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI): This can be defined as the area where development abuts on or is intermingled with the wildland that can be forests or mountainous terrain covered with flammable chaparral. The wildland, because of its rugged terrain, poor infrastructure, and flammable fuel load, represent different and unusual problems with respect to controlling fire. This can be exacerbated by climatologic events such as gale-force winds (the Santa Anas) and extremely low humidity (in the single digits) which can and does occur in San Diego County. Living and building in the WUI has now attracted attention from all levels of government because of the expenditures of money and resources to protect residents who wish to live in these areas.

[3] General Plan: Every 20 years a plan is supposed to be approved at the County level which is a blueprint for how development should proceed within the County. It takes into account population growth, traffic, water resources, safety, agricultural needs, preservation of natural resources and a whole gamut of variables to anticipate the future and work within the framework of topographical constraints and available infrastructure. There are many experts from different areas all contributing to and influencing the final result. This is then evaluated by the elected County Supervisors (five of them representing different parts of the county) who then approve or disapprove the plan for various reasons and may wish to modify it in some way. This plan (called the General Plan) will set zoning (how many houses can be built in a prescribed area) and land use (how the land may be used – residential, commercial, agricultural, etc). General Plan 20/20 has been delayed for 8 years at the level of the Board of Supervisors of San Diego County.

[4] MCS-Southern California Firestorm 2003 (Report for the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center) p 4-7. Introduction to Wildland Fire Pyne, Andrews, Laven  p311. Fire Suppression Foundation Doctrine June 2005, p10.

[5]General Plan Amendment (GPA): The purpose of an amendment is to allow developers to build on a parcel of land in a manner that may not exactly fit the General Plan but serve the general good of the community. An amendment was never intended to completely subvert the intentions of the General Plan. In fact, in order for an amendment to be passed  legally it must go through a rigorous evaluation by the County’s agencies and comply with State Law for amending a General Plan (which includes a test of conformity to the General Plan).

[6] Department of Planning and Land Use (DPLU): This governmental agency is directly under the control of the Board of Supervisors and provides the expertise in evaluating new developments, planning, traffic circulation, etc and coordinates activities so that the Supervisors can make well informed decisions knowing that the State Laws have been satisfied. The Supervisors can take their cue from the DPLU’s recommendations but can still vote how they wish. Unfortunately, the DPLU employees (essentially everyone who works for the DPLU is a County employee) have job security and promotions to consider when speaking out against or for a particular development. In no way are decisions made independently. For instance, there is ample evidence that the Stonegate development was pushed through the DPLU by the Supervisors. The Supervisors wanted a chance to vote on the project and did not want the project quashed at a lower level.

[7] EIR (Environmental Impact Report) – a state requirement of a developer to publish a document (the EIR) stating what the adverse environmental impacts of a development will be.

[8] Merriam Mountains Evacuation Plan as part of the  July Final 2005 Fire Protection Plan; Appendix E p.3.  the statement is made that the project will contain 9,000 to 12,000 residents - the project size at that time was 2,391 units.  By extrapolating the new size of 2,700 units, the population would now be between 10,163-13,550 residents.

[9] EIR of Stonegate Subchapter 3.3 p.4

[10] University Center for Atmospheric Research:

 www.ucar.edu/communications/factsheets/wildfires.html

[11] California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, San Diego Unit, Pre Fire Management Plan, 2005, p.42.

[12] “Preparing for the Worst” by Michael Burge, San Diego Union Tribune, March 28, 2004

[13] Stonegate’s Conceptual Wildfire Life Safety & Sheltering Report –Draft – June 6, 2006

[14] FRAP MAP Calfire

[15]Plan Amendment Authorization (PAA): When a new development is first considered, a preliminary presentation is made to the county planning department to see if it fits the parameters of the State’s and County’s rules and regulations. If the project is too outlandish, the county will save the developer time and money and reject the development outright and disapprove a PAA.

[16]Sponsor Groups: In each unincorporated area of San Diego County there are members of the community who are appointed and approved by the Board of Supervisors to be on an advisory panel called the Sponsor Group. This supposedly allows a means of communication between the community and the Supervisors regarding potential decisions that may affect the individual communities. A large development such as Stonegate would have drastic effects on three adjoining rural communities (Twin Oaks being the most affected) and the thinking would be that the Supervisors would want to know how the residents of Twin Oaks would be affected by the placement of this development in their midst. The system has turned out to be a means of allowing the Supervisors to gain some credibility for the idea that the Supervisors are respectful of the wishes and concerns of the community. They indeed will respond to the community’s wishes as long as it does not interfere with their own personal agendas. However, if the personal agenda of the Supervisor of an area differs from those of outspoken members of the sponsor group, then those members may be dismissed from their positions.  In fact, in the Bonsall sponsor group, members of the panel were actually fired because they impeded the plans of Supervisor Bill Horn. We heard Sponsor Group chairmen lament that they could not be too vocal about the community’s wishes for fear of being fired from their position. At times, however, the Sponsor Group will state that a development was egregious and ill-suited (such as Stonegate) and they would voice strong disapproval (the community would be strongly upset if they did not). The Supervisors would generally ignore the community if they had already decided that a project is going to be approved. The true power of the Sponsor Group manifested when some small-time developer wanted to gain approval for a small project where the Supervisors did not have much interest. In this case, the recommendation of the Sponsor Group carried some weight. The Chairmen of the Sponsor Groups would many times reflect the community’s opposition to a project but their voice would be blunted by their special relationship with the Supervisors. The Sponsor Group meetings are usually poorly attended and represent going through the motions with little relevance to what the Supervisors decide on big issues. It is important to remember that the Sponsor Group members MAY NOT REPRESENT the community because they are pre-selected and/or approved by the Supervisors and can be fired by the Supervisors. The three Sponsor Groups representing areas that border the Stonegate project are Twin Oaks, Bonsall and Hidden Meadows.

[17]California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA ): CEQA embodies the state laws that must be followed to amend a general plan. These laws undergo constant revision and are steeped in legal jargon which make it more difficult for the community to participate effectively. However, as part of CEQA, there are policies that have been developed reflecting the decisions the courts have made from challenges against developments. These policies (decisions) are now considered to be implicit in CEQA. These policies are stated in layman’s terms and may be as straightforward and simple as to state that the public must be protected and should be considered as part of the environment.

[18] These were subpoenaed documents in an unrelated area that became public documents. They consist mainly of letters written by the President of Stonegate to a land broker which were not supposed to be public and therefore give a rare insight to what is happening behind the scenes.